The Clincher: Why The Bengals Will Beat the Vikings

Too often people write things that are inflammatory, ridiculous, or antagonistic just in order to create a buzz about themselves regardless of whether the words have any reason or merit. While the title of this may sound like one of those, it is not intended to be. It may be enormously incorrect come Sunday at dinner time, but I have a strong reason to believe that this will occur. In fact, I’ll offer you five (and a half) reasons why I honestly believe this will occur.

Reason #1

The Schedule Factor. Minnesota has rolled to a 10-2 start thus far; however, in looking at their schedule only two of those wins are against winning teams. Two. In fact they have only played five teams with .500 records or better and the total points scored in those games? Vikings 135, Opponents 137.

In the other seven games, the combined record of Minnesota’s opponents is 21-63. That’s a winning percentage of 25%. In other words, over half the Vikings schedule has been played against teams that would average 4 wins…for the entire season.

The story against the “hard-nosed” AFC North is even more telling. A season-opening win against the Browns 34-20 seems dominant until you realize that the Browns didn’t exceed 20 points in a game until a loss to the Lions two weeks ago. Then, Minnesota got narrow win against the Ravens 33-31 in Week 6, the most points Baltimore has put up in a game since then by the way. Finally, the Vikings first loss of the season came the following week, 27-17 against the Steelers whose failures of late are well documented.

Incidentally, the Vikings two wins against winning teams are actually two wins over the same team; the Green Bay Packers, a team also defeated by the Bengals…on the road.

Reason #2

The December Factor. This “theory” has been thrown around quite a bit since the Arizona thrashing that Brett Favre fades as the season winds down. Unlike many other anecdotal theories thrown out there that only exist because no one checks the facts, this one actually has some bite.

If you break down Favre’s career stats by month, December is the only month that Favre has less than 7 yards per pass attempt (tired arm?). His completion percentage is lowest in the month of Santa Claus. His career passer rating is remarkably steady month by month with one exception… December. His passer rating takes a dive with the temperature, over four points lower than his career rating.

Lastly, Favre has played almost 300 games and thrown almost 10,000 passes. He’s played against every NFL team. Of the 32 teams in the league, there are only five in which he has more interceptions than touchdowns. You guessed it; one of those teams is the Cincinnati Bengals.

Reason #3

The Injury Factor. A partial list of Vikings that did not fully participate in the first practice of the week: Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe, and that’s just on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, all of these players will play on Sunday but you don’t get to sit out just to go to the movies, there has to be a reason.

Defensively the Vikings are a force. However, arguably their best cornerback Antoine Winfield hasn’t been on the field in two months.

Lastly, when one of your key players suffers a gruesome injury on the field as EJ Henderson did against Arizona, it gives your team pause. While NFL players make a living not thinking about what could happen to them in the course of a game, when you see it happen right in front of your eyes it is impossible not to seriously consider your football mortality. It’s human nature.

I’m not saying that the Bengals lost Super Bowl XXIII due to Tim Krumrie’s injury or lost in the 2005 playoffs to the Steelers due to Carson Palmer’s injury but when it happens, the deflating impact it has on a team is visible to even the most casual observer and the hangover from it is tough to shake.

Reason #4

The Balance Factor. Minnesota’s defense has been run on less than any other team in the NFL. Obviously, this is due to the fact that they have been winning most of their games and opponents have been forced to abandon the run early. This plays right into the strength of the Vikings as they lead the NFL in sacks. Keeping the Williams’ wall and Jared Allen off of Palmer all day is not a realistic scenario if the Bengals are going to back me up here.

How can they do this? By continuing to do what they have done all year. Run the ball. The season play count for Cincinnati is so close to 50/50 run vs. pass that it’s almost scary. If they keep this game plan, it will help negate the sack factor and make the Vikings do what they haven’t had to do at all this year, defend the run.

On average the Vikings defense faces 34 passes and 21 runs per game. Favre and the offense has put them in position to succeed by getting leads, allowing them to pin their ears back and assail the quarterback as they would a pizza buffet. The Bengals have to keep them guessing pass or run on every play and no team in football is better balanced to do so.

Reason #5

The Zimmer Factor. Mike Zimmer knows how to beat Brett Favre. As a secondary coach with the Cowboys, he ended Favre’s season twice in two years including once in the NFC Championship game. Granted this was 15 years ago, but how much do you think he’s learned since then?

Want more recent? In the forgettable 2008 Bengal season when Favre was a Jet, the Zimmer-led defense managed to get two interceptions and returned a Favre fumble for a touchdown. The Jets won the game but the inept Cincinnati offense could only manage 178 yards in the game and kept Zimmer’s men on the field for the bulk of the day.

The Vikings offense, despite having the best running back in the game, is running through Favre this year and Zimmer knows how to neutralize that threat. If Sunday at 4:15 this article isn’t worth the paper it’s not printed on and Vikings are on top, it will not be because Favre threw for 350 yards and 4 TD’s. If it is, expect several defensive players to be walking home from the Twin Cities.

Call it ridiculous optimism or sensationalistic writing if you would prefer, but when you dig into the numbers, the formidable offensive talent and the gaudy Viking record aren’t as ominous as they first appear.

Plus, haven’t the Bengals played up (and down) to every opponent this season? Gearing up for the big games and easing up on the throttle for the “tomato cans” seems to be the M.O. of this team. There’s no reason to believe that will change, but that’s just an anecdotal observation so it only counts for half.

The game is not played on a stat sheet and anything can happen on a football field. However, in the end the Bengals should win this game simply because the Vikings are more beatable than people think and this Bengals team is built to win this game at this time.